解題
(a) Inflation = (109.2 - 104.0) / 104.0 x 100 = 5.2 / 104.0 x 100 = 5.0%.
(b) Price in 2021 = 5000 x 8.0 = 40 000 koras. Price in 2025 = 5000 x 10.0 = 50 000 koras. Increase = 10 000 koras.
(c) A fall in the kora means each dollar costs more koras, so imported fuel and machinery become dearer in koras. Firms face higher costs of production and pass these on in higher prices (cost-push inflation).
(d) Higher fuel costs shift short-run aggregate supply leftwards (SRAS1 to SRAS2). With AD unchanged, equilibrium moves up the AD curve: the price level rises and real GDP falls.
(e) Examples: households' wages rise more slowly than prices so purchasing power falls; savers holding money in bank accounts find its value falls; firms face higher costs and may reduce investment.
(f) Judgement should weigh interest rate rises (reduce consumption and investment, lower AD, but weak against cost-push inflation caused by the exchange rate and import prices, and reduce investment) against supply-side policy (raises productive capacity, but slow and costly).
評分準則
(a) 5.0 (%) = 2 marks. Accept 5 or 5.0%. If the answer is incorrect, award 1 mark for correct working, e.g. (109.2 - 104.0) / 104.0 x 100 (1). Reject 9.2% or 4.8%. [2]
(b) 10 000 (koras) = 2 marks. If incorrect, award 1 mark for 40 000 and 50 000 shown, or 5000 x 10.0 or 5000 x 8.0 (1). Accept 10 000 with no units. [2]
(c) Up to 3 marks: Fall in value of the kora / kora depreciates so more koras needed per dollar (1). Imported fuel/machinery/raw materials become more expensive in koras (1). Firms' costs rise and they pass these on as higher prices, so the price level rises (cost-push) (1). Accept a link to import prices rising for households as an alternative. Max 2 marks if no context from the case study (imported fuel, machinery or the kora/dollar rate). [3]
(d) Up to 4 marks: Diagram: axes labelled price level and real GDP, AD, SRAS (1). SRAS shifts left, labelled (1). New equilibrium with higher price level and lower real GDP shown, with PL1, PL2, Y1, Y2 labelled (1). Explanation: higher fuel costs raise firms' costs of production so they supply less at each price level (1). Price level rises and real output falls (1). Max 4 marks overall; diagram and explanation can be credited together. [4]
(e) 2 marks for each consequence, up to 2 consequences. For each: identify a valid consequence (1), applied explanation using the case study (1). Examples: households' wages rise more slowly than prices, so purchasing power falls (1+1); savers' money buys less each year, so the real value of savings falls (1+1); firms facing higher import costs raise prices and may lose competitiveness or cut investment (1+1). Any other appropriate response can be credited as appropriate. Max 2 marks if only one consequence is explained. [4]
(f)* Level 3 (8-10 marks): Good, well-developed analysis of why higher interest rates may reduce inflation (higher borrowing costs and saving rewards reduce consumption and investment, AD shifts left, demand-pull pressure falls) and of the limitations, with strong application to Valdoria (cost-push from import prices and a depreciating kora; investment discouraged as business groups argued), and consideration of at least one alternative such as supply-side policy (training, infrastructure) or policies to support the kora. Evaluation is supported by a justified judgement, e.g. rate rises are effective against demand-pull but of limited use for imported cost-push inflation; a higher rate may also help the kora by attracting funds; effectiveness depends on size of the rate rise, time lags, and the cause of inflation. Diagram(s) may be used and integrated.
Level 2 (4-7 marks): Reasonable analysis with some application to the case study and some evaluative comment, but with limited development or an unsupported or partial judgement.
Level 1 (1-3 marks): Limited knowledge, e.g. a basic statement that higher interest rates reduce spending or that supply-side policies improve supply, with little or no application or judgement.
0 marks: No creditworthy response.
Indicative content (not a mandatory checklist): demand-pull vs cost-push causes; AD falls with higher rates; trade-off with growth, investment and unemployment; time lags; supply-side policies raise long-run aggregate supply but are slow and costly; a higher rate may raise demand for the kora, reducing import costs; the policy rate was raised from 3% to 6% and CPI inflation was still 2.5% in 2025 relative to 2024 data (Fig. 1: (116.4 - 113.6) / 113.6 x 100 = 2.5%), which suggests prices rose more slowly after 2024. Any other appropriate response can be credited as appropriate. [10]
Total: 25 marks.